A lot of people come to us and suggest to build algorithms which capture 10X moves.
It’s a strong perception that crypto is a get-rich quick scheme and anybody who participates is looking for a 10x move.
This is wrong! There is no get rich quickly scheme, unless you’re running an elaborate crypto ponzi scheme, even that I would call a get rich scheme and not get rich quick scheme.
Let’s assume in a hypothetical scenario, there happens to be a 10x move over a period of 10 days that would mean around 59% move day on day. Let’s extend it to 15 days with some negative moves to make it more realistic.
What would you need to capture the above 15 day move?
Here’s the recipe
10 grams of Information
Coins which actually do a 10x move in 15 days are by no measure popular coins. They’re hidden among the 20000+ Crypto coins available across all Centralised and decentralised exchanges. To really capture the move you need to know the coin which would be the first step.
20 grams of Timing – Entry
Nobody can time the market, also nobody can perfectly capture the start of a 10x move, it is borderline impossible to know that the first 5% rise in the price is going to be another 995%, unless you’re the one buying in the first place for the first 5%, or you’re the owner of the coin.
If you miss the first 100% move that is the coin going from $0.1 to $0.2 and you enter at $0.2 your 10x move becomes a 5x move because now your purchase price would be $0.2 and selling would be $1
10 grams of Timing – Exit
On the completion of the move, would you be sure that it is complete or there is some more fuel left in the tank, maybe it might go to $1.1 or $1.2 and you’d make a 100-200% more by waiting a bit more.
Timing the market on exit, is even more difficult because you can never be sure wether the move has ended or its still has some gas left. If you know the move has ended, it’s already too late by then and you’ve lost some critical % of your beloved 10x move.
20 grams of Mindset
Are you really in it for the 10x move? When the chart is going all gaga green in front of your eyes, the solitary thought that crosses your mind is, What if it goes down from here? What if it is not a 10x move? and in 80% of the cases the person exits at 10-20% profit. Because that is the maximum that they can handle their fear of losing what is already “potentially” in their hand. out of the other 19.99% they sell it at 50%-100% profit and then there are the 0.1% people who might sell a little later at a substantial amount of profit.
Between the move from $0.1 to $1. The so called Pump! The coin/asset/security changes numerous amount of hands/wallets. Because our minds cannot potentially handle the cocktail of emotions rising from fear of losing the potential profit and greed of getting more profit. It works as a sine curve, oscillating between fear and greed.
40 grams of Logic
People overestimate the short term and underestimate the long term. Even if the above imaginary scenario takes place, which is a big IF, would you be betting your horses on it?
If you have a potential $10000 to invest in crypto. How much would you be betting on such a scenario above? My logic says between $10-$50, because that is a “BET” in simpler terms it is a “Gamble”.
Even if it plays out according to the 0.01% of the 10x capturing scenario. It would just be 1% of your portfolio which makes absolutely no sense from an investing or a wealth creation perspective.
Another point to consider is that It is a “Gamble”, and even if a gamble pays out once, if you do it N number of times, eventually it’s the Casino that wins, never the player. The only benefit these kind of transactions bring is it gives you an additional topic for your chai-sutta sessions.
Thus concludes my 100 grams of gyaan!
The entire above scenario is imaginary to explain how a human mind would react and how it is unreasonable and impractical to have such expectations not just from crypto but any asset class. To really make wealth there has to be process which is logical, has some method to it and is repeatable. Unless something is repeatable it’s not really something you should bank on.
At sypto.xyz we bring method to the crypto madness by giving you a product truly built for wealth creation purpose. We systematically invest your funds from your own account into opportunities that arise in the crypto markets from time to time. The strategy stays out of the market in turbulent times to protect the capital and enters the market during positive trends to capture the favourable movements. The live proof of this can be viewed on a public portfolio where even though BTC witnessed 60%+ Drawdown, our portfolios were stable and did not face any major losses.
